Warmer November may prolong dengue season in Pakistan, Met Office warns

• Above-normal temperatures could extend dengue season, particularly in southern Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan.
• Early-morning fog may disrupt highway travel and flights, while smog could worsen air quality across the plains.
• Above-normal rainfall could support Rabi sowing in northern areas, while drier conditions in the south may limit water supplies for crops.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has warned that warmer-than-usual conditions in November 2026 could prolong the dengue season, particularly in parts of southern Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan where mosquito breeding is more common. The department advised health authorities to remain vigilant and continue mosquito-control measures.

The Met Office said dry, cool nights could favour fog formation in southern Punjab, Sindh and adjoining parts of Balochistan. Poor visibility may disrupt travel on major roads and highways and delay flights, especially in the early morning. The outlook also warned of possible smog and deteriorating air quality across the plains, with children, older adults and people with asthma or other chronic lung conditions facing greater health risks.

Average temperatures are forecast to stay above normal across the country, with the largest departures from seasonal averages expected in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The probability of above-normal temperatures is highest in eastern Gilgit-Baltistan and also high in northwestern Balochistan and along Sindh’s southeastern coast. The forecast shows a weaker tendency towards warmer conditions in central and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and parts of southwestern Balochistan.

Most of Pakistan is expected to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall. The largest surpluses are forecast across much of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northwestern Punjab and parts of Kashmir. Rainfall is expected to stay close to normal in central districts of Punjab and Balochistan, while Sindh, southern Balochistan and some districts of southern Punjab could receive slightly less rain than usual.

The probability-based outlook also shows a greater chance of above-normal rainfall in northern and western areas, with the strongest chances in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and northwestern Punjab. Near-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome in Sindh and adjoining southeastern Balochistan.

The Met Office said wetter conditions could help farmers sow rain-fed Rabi crops and support germination in northern Punjab, central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and AJK. In Sindh, southern Punjab and southern Balochistan, rainfall shortfalls could reduce water availability for irrigation and hamper sowing in rain-fed areas.

The monthly outlook draws on average projections from 10 global seasonal prediction models that guide the department’s rainfall and temperature forecasts. The models indicate that positive El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions will persist through November, while the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to shift to neutral by the end of the month.