Economic Survey of Pakistan 2024 – 2025

The Economic Survey of Pakistan 2024-25 provides a detailed overview of the country’s economic landscape during the outgoing fiscal year. Launched by Federal Finance Minister Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, the survey serves as a key pre-budget document, analyzing performance across vital sectors such as agriculture, industry, services, and social development. It highlights trends in growth, investment, inflation, public debt, and employment, while also outlining the government’s policy measures aimed at fostering stability and long-term economic progress.

Historic Milestones: Pakistan Becomes $411 Billion Economy Amid Broad Recovery

Pakistan’s economy marked a major turnaround in FY2025, with GDP reaching an all-time high of $411 billion, reflecting broad-based recovery and renewed investor confidence. Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, officially presented these achievements during the launch of the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2024–25, highlighting robust economic reforms, improved macroeconomic indicators, and strong institutional performance.

According to the survey, real GDP grew by 2.68%, led primarily by a 4.8% rebound in industrial activity, signifying the end of a prolonged slowdown. The size of the economy surpassed the $400 billion mark for the first time, while per capita income rose to $1,824—another significant milestone.

The finance minister, accompanied by senior officials including Finance Secretary Imdad Ullah Bosal, Economic Advisor Dr. Raja Hasan M. Mohsin, and Advisor to the Finance Minister Khurram Schehzad, emphasized the impact of key reforms under the IMF-supported framework that helped stabilize the economy.

One of the most notable achievements was the steep decline in inflation, which fell to a multi-decade low of 0.3% in April 2025, driven by improved exchange rate stability, tight monetary policy, and enhanced food supply mechanisms. This allowed the policy rate to be slashed from 22% to 11%, easing credit availability and stimulating growth.

Pakistan’s current account posted a surplus of $1.9 billion, and foreign exchange reserves rose to $16.64 billion, signaling external sector stability. Exports and remittances both grew, while foreign direct investment rose by 16.5%. Notably, overseas Pakistanis continued to express confidence through record inflows in the Roshan Digital Account.

On the fiscal front, Pakistan achieved a rare feat by posting a fiscal surplus of Rs 1,896 billion (1.7% of GDP) in Q1 FY2025—the first such surplus in 24 years. Fiscal consolidation reduced the fiscal deficit to 2.6% of GDP in the first nine months, while the primary surplus rose to 3.0%. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) registered a strong 25.9% increase in tax collections, a result of aggressive reform efforts, especially in provincial tax mobilization, including agriculture, and GST rationalization under a renewed National Fiscal Pact.

The KSE-100 Index surged by over 52%, reflecting investor optimism, and credit rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s upgraded Pakistan’s outlook. The banking sector also showed solid performance, with rising assets, deposits, and capital adequacy.

Energy sector reforms continued with the country’s installed power generation capacity reaching 46,605 MW, driven by diversification and sustainability initiatives. Additionally, Pakistan took a bold step by launching its first carbon market policy, issuing a Rs 30 billion Green Sukuk, and securing $1.4 billion under the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Environmental projects like Recharge Pakistan aim to strengthen climate resilience.

Education and social development received significant attention. The Higher Education Commission (HEC) was allocated Rs 61.12 billion, while national literacy reached 60.65% (urban: 74.09%, rural: 51.56%). Under the PM Youth Skill Development Program, over 56,000 youth were trained in IT and hospitality sectors. Overseas employment facilitation efforts led to 727,381 workers being placed abroad in 2024.

The Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) remained a major pillar of social protection. Since its inception, BISP has disbursed Rs 2,607.81 billion, benefiting around 9.87 million people. For FY2025, Rs 598.72 billion was allocated, out of which Rs 385.64 billion was disbursed by March 31, 2025—including Rs 328.47 billion under Unconditional Cash Transfers (UCTs) and Rs 57.17 billion under Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs), covering 7.87 million and 2 million beneficiaries, respectively.

Pakistan’s digital economy also saw remarkable gains. ICT exports surged 23.7% to $2.8 billion, backed by a $2.43 billion trade surplus and $400 million in freelancer earnings. The government supported over 50 Software Technology Parks and e-Rozgar centers, while National Incubation Centers nurtured over 1,900 startups, creating 185,000 jobs and attracting Rs 30.8 billion in investments.

Reflecting on the past, the finance minister noted that FY2023 was a year of severe crisis, marked by -0.2% GDP growth, a 3.9% decline in industrial output, inflation peaking at 29.2%, and rupee depreciation of 28.5%. The policy rate was at a record 22%, and foreign reserves dropped to $6.3 billion, while public debt climbed to 75% of GDP. A daunting $25 billion external financing requirement further stressed the economy.

After assuming office in March 2024, the current government launched an aggressive reform program, successfully completing the IMF Standby Arrangement (SBA). The focus was on fiscal consolidation, exchange rate flexibility, energy sector restructuring, SOE reforms, and better governance.

On the global front, the finance minister acknowledged the gradual stabilization of the world economy, though rising trade disputes presented emerging risks. Global GDP is forecasted to slow to 2.8% in 2025, before rebounding to 3.0% in 2026. Global inflation is projected to decline from 5.7% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025, and 3.6% in 2026, providing some relief for import-dependent countries like Pakistan.

Pakistan’s major economic and remittance partners—Saudi Arabia, UAE, China, and the United States—are expected to maintain stable growth, supporting continued momentum in exports and remittances.

Population Reaches 241.5 Million with 2.55% Annual Growth

According to the 7th National Population and Housing Census 2023, Pakistan’s population stood at 241.5 million, growing at an annual rate of 2.55%. Males accounted for 124.32 million (51.5%) and females 117.15 million (48.5%). A significant proportion of the population is young, with 26% aged 15-29 and 53.8% within the working-age bracket (15-59).

56,000 Youth Trained Under PMYSDP; 727,381 Overseas Jobs Facilitated

The Prime Minister’s Youth Skill Development Programme (PMYSDP) trained 56,000 individuals in 39 IT, 53 industrial, and 34 technical skills. Around 16,000 students earned certifications in partnership with Google, Microsoft, and Cisco. Batch-I of 362 students was trained in FDE colleges in collaboration with NUST, NUML, and COMSATS. The government introduced a new Tier-4 in the Youth Loan Scheme to fund laptops and support overseas job seekers. In 2024, 727,381 workers registered for overseas employment. The Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis issued 65 new licenses, bringing the total to 2,264 employment promoters.

Inflation Drops to 4.7%, Lowest Since 2015

Inflation averaged 4.7% during July-April FY2025, down from 26% the previous year. CPI fell to 0.3% in April 2025, the lowest since 2015. Key categories saw major drops: Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Fuels (8.5%), Restaurants and Hotels (8.2%), and Services (12.8%). Education remained high at 11.6%. The URAAN Pakistan initiative helped reduce production costs and stabilize prices. Government actions like improved supply chains, administrative relief, and global commodity price dips contributed to easing inflation.

Agriculture Grows by 0.56% Despite Decline in Major Crops

The agriculture sector grew by 0.56% in FY2025. Livestock rose 4.72%, forestry 3.30%, and fisheries 1.42%. However, important crops declined by 13.49%, driven by lower cultivation and adverse weather. Cotton fell by 30.7%, wheat by 8.9%, maize by 15.4%, sugarcane by 3.9%, and rice by 1.4%. Cotton production was 7.08 million bales, wheat 28.98 million tonnes, sugarcane 84.24 million tonnes, and rice 9.72 million tonnes. Other crops grew 4.78%, led by potatoes (11.5%) and onions (15.9%). Cotton ginning declined 19.03%. Agriculture’s share in GDP slipped to 23.54%.

Over 131 Million Mobile Phones Manufactured Since 2019

Since 2019, Pakistan produced 131.26 million mobile phones, including 51.07 million smartphones. PTA’s 2021 Mobile Device Manufacturing (MDM) Regulations attracted 36 companies with 10-year licenses, boosting local production and creating jobs.

Petroleum Consumption Rises 7% to 13.17 MMT

Petroleum consumption increased 7.04% YoY to 13.17 MMT during July–March FY2025. Transport sector consumed 80%, rising 7.99% to 10.54 MMT. Industrial and power sectors reduced fuel usage by 7.35% and 77.68%, respectively. Imports rose 12.5% to 12.53 MMT, with a stable import bill at $8.40 billion. HOBC imports surged over 8x to 144.44 thousand MT.

GDP Grows 2.68%; Current Account Surplus Hits $1.9 Billion

GDP grew by 2.68% in FY2025, driven by agriculture (0.56%), industry (4.77%), and services (2.91%). Inflation fell from 26% to 4.7%, while the current account showed a $1.9 billion surplus. National savings reached 14.1% of GDP, exceeding the 13.8% investment rate. Fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.6%, primary surplus reached 3.0% of GDP. Private investment rose 9.9% and public investment by 34.2%.

Benazir Nashonuma Programme Benefits 860,615 Women and Children

The programme supported 860,615 beneficiaries, including 480,290 children and 380,325 pregnant women across 158 districts via 559 centers. Cash transfers are Rs 3,000 (boys) and Rs 3,500 (girls) quarterly. Sindh had the highest share at 305,841. The initiative also supports adolescent girls in Kafalat households with stipends and nutrition education.

Telecom Sector Earns Rs 803 Billion, Attracts $621 Million FDI

In FY2025, the telecom sector earned Rs 803 billion and attracted $621 million in investment. It contributed Rs 271 billion in taxes. By March 2025, Pakistan had 57,063 cell sites (96.2% 4G), mobile coverage of 91%, and 3G/4G coverage of 81%. Broadband subscribers hit 147.2 million with 59.8% penetration. PTA opened the 6 GHz band for Wi-Fi 6E.

Manufacturing Grows 1.3%; Mining Contracts by 3.4%

The manufacturing sector grew 1.3%. LSM declined 1.5% during July-March but rose 1.8% YoY in March 2025. Textiles (2.2%), wearing apparel (7.6%), pharmaceuticals (2.3%), and automobiles (40%) showed growth. Mining contracted 3.4%, but extraction of minerals like sulphur (341.9%), dolomite (43.3%), limestone (34.1%) increased. Crude oil (-14.8%), gas (-6.8%), coal (-5.7%), and iron ore (-20.2%) declined.

Life Expectancy Improves to 67.6 Years; DPT Coverage Reaches 86%

Life expectancy rose to 67.6 years in 2023. DPT immunization coverage improved to 86%. The EPI vaccinates 6.8 million children and similar number of pregnant women annually. HPV vaccine will be phased in from 2025 to 2027. Programs launched include NAPHS (2024-28), National Hepatitis C Elimination (2024-27), and Diabetes Prevention. TB care reached 252,803 patients, while HIV/AIDS care expanded. Nutrition strategies target stunting (40.2%), underweight (28.9%), and wasting (17.7%) rates in children.

Key Highlights of the Economic Survey This Year

Macroeconomic Performance

• GDP size reached $411 billion — first time in history
• Real GDP growth: 2.68%
• Industrial sector growth: 4.8%
• Per capita income: $1,824

Inflation & Monetary Policy

• Inflation (April 2025): 0.3% — multi-decade low
• Policy rate cut: from 22% to 11%

External Sector

• Current account surplus: $1.9 billion
• Foreign exchange reserves: $16.64 billion
• ICT exports: $2.8 billion (↑23.7%)
• Freelancer earnings: $400 million
• Roshan Digital Account inflows: record high
• Foreign investment growth: ↑16.5%

Fiscal Performance

• Fiscal surplus in Q1 FY2025: Rs 1,896 billion (1.7% of GDP) — first surplus in 24 years
• Fiscal deficit (Jul–Mar): 2.6% of GDP
• Primary surplus: 3.0%
• FBR tax collection growth: ↑25.9%

Financial Markets & Credit Ratings

• KSE-100 index: ↑52%
• Credit rating upgrades: by Fitch and Moody’s
• Banking sector: strong growth in assets, deposits, and capital adequacy

Energy & Environment

• Installed power capacity: 46,605 MW
• Green Sukuk issued: Rs 30 billion
• IMF RSF financing secured: $1.4 billion
• Launch of Pakistan’s first carbon market policy
• Climate project: Recharge Pakistan initiated

Education & Employment

• HEC allocation: Rs 61.12 billion
• National literacy rate: 60.65% (Urban: 74.09%, Rural: 51.56%)
• PM Youth Skill Program: 56,000+ trained in IT and hospitality
• Overseas employment (2024): 727,381 workers

Social Protection (BISP)

• Total disbursement since inception: Rs 2,607.81 billion to 9.87 million beneficiaries
• FY2025 allocation: Rs 598.72 billion
  • Disbursed by Mar 31, 2025: Rs 385.64 billion
    • UCTs: Rs 328.47 billion to 7.87 million
    • CCTs: Rs 57.17 billion to 2 million

Digital Economy & Startups

• Software Technology Parks: 50+
• e-Rozgar centers operational
• National Incubation Centers: 1,900+ startups supported
  • Jobs created: 185,000
  • Investment attracted: Rs 30.8 billion

Past Economic Crisis (FY2023 Snapshot)

• GDP contraction: -0.2%
• Industrial output: ↓3.9%
• Inflation peak: 29.2%
• Rupee depreciation: 28.5%
• Reserves dropped to: $6.3 billion
• Fiscal deficit: 7.8% of GDP
• Public debt: 75% of GDP
• External financing need: $25 billion

Important Links